Global Moderators group

Rohil

Centrum expects a gradual consumer rebound led by FMCG and a standout jewellery quarter. It pegs FMCG revenue up ~6.6% YoY (≈4% volume) on GST normalization, restocking and softer inflation, with modest margin expansion. Jewellery is tipped to “shine” with a sharp topline jump, helped by the gold-price rally and festive buying. Overall, staples outpace discretionaries near term, with recovery broadening into H2 FY26.

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Rohil

Executive Summary

FMCG brands that advertised on JioStar during TATA IPL 2025 delivered a +5.7% average sales uplift across 4,400+ stores, 40+ brands, and 15 categories (Aintu Inc. study). Performance improved with cross-screen mixes (TV + digital), higher investment tiers, and richer formats (video + display). The findings position JioStar’s IPL inventory as a scalable sales-activation lever, not just a reach vehicle.

Business Objective

Convert seasonal IPL reach into measurable store-level sales for FMCG portfolios while identifying the optimal media mix (screen, spend tier, and format) to guide future playbooks.

Context & Challenge

IPL spikes attention but fragmentation (TV vs. digital, urban vs. rural, modern trade vs. GT) makes it hard to tie ads to scans.
Marketers need proof of incrementality beyond vanity metrics and a mix model that scales across categories.

Intervention

Brands ran IPL-timed campaigns on JioStar with varied mixes:

Screens: TV only vs. Digital only vs. Cross-screen
Formats: Video only vs. Video + display
Spend tiers: ₹10 cr+ vs. sub-₹10 cr

Measurement Design (Abridged)

Sample: 4,400+ stores; 40+ brands; 15 FMCG categories
Windows: Pre-IPL baseline → IPL flight → short tail
Method: Matched-store comparisons and pre/post analysis controlling for seasonality; category and region fixed effects to reduce noise
Primary KPI: Value sales uplift (%) versus matched control

Note: As with all field studies, residual confounders (pricing, trade push, distribution changes) are possible; see Limitations.

Results

Headline Impact

+5.7% average value uplift across participating brands.

Mix That Outperformed

Cross-screen (TV + Digital): +6.3% vs Single screen: +5.3%
Higher investment (₹10 cr+): +8.4% vs <₹10 cr: +4.9%
Video + Display: +7.2% vs Video-only: +5.5%

Category Notes (directional)

Impulse and beverages saw faster week-1 response; home & personal care built steadier, cumulative gains over the flight.
Stores with digital-led audiences (higher app usage) showed stronger video+display responsiveness.

What Drove the Gains (Interpretation)

Cross-screen coherence: TV builds mass salience while digital tightens recency and frequency near the point of purchase.
Creative surface area: Adding display to video increases product reminders during consideration and replenishment cycles.
Scale economics: Above the ₹10 cr threshold, brands reach sufficient weekly GRPs/Imps to sustain an always-on presence through the IPL calendar.

Commercial Implications (Back-of-Envelope ROI)

If a brand’s IPL-period baseline sales are ₹100 cr, a +5.7% uplift ≈ ₹5.7 cr incremental.
With ₹8 cr media: ROI = 0.71x gross.
With ₹10 cr+ (avg. +8.4% uplift): incremental ≈ ₹8.4 cr; ROI = 0.84x gross.
After trade margins and gross margin (e.g., 40–55%), several portfolios clear positive contribution when creative and retail activation are coordinated (bundles, shelf, coupons).

Recommendation: model contribution ROI using brand-specific margins and pass-through; the media mix is close to break-even on gross and typically positive on contribution with in-store support.

Playbook for IPL 2026

Mix & Investment

Anchor on cross-screen; resist TV-only or digital-only unless budget-constrained.
Target ₹10–12 cr per core brand (or pooled by category) to hit effective weekly frequency.
Use video + display; deploy display to sustain mid-flight reminders and last-mile nudges.

Audience & Timing

Front-load awareness in opening fortnight, then maintain steady weekly pressure; spike again in playoffs/finals.
Layer retail media (Blinkit, Zepto, Amazon/Flipkart) to capture in-moment demand; synchronize price/promos.

Creative & Merchandising

Build two creative lines: (1) Mass salience (TV) and (2) Offer/variant reminders (digital/display).
Mirror claims and packs on PDPs and store shelves; ensure consistent SKU/hero image and inventory in hot ZIPs.

Measurement

Set up geo-split or matched-store tests with MMM/MTA overlays.
Track incrementality by screen, format, spend tier, and retailer cohorts.
Define safety KPIs: out-of-stock rate, price parity, and cost-to-serve during spikes.

Risks & Limitations

Attribution bleed from concurrent promotions or competitor moves.
Distribution gaps can cap uplift even with strong media.
Creative wear-out if weekly rotation is thin; plan 3–4 cutdowns and display variants.

Next Steps

Pre-book cross-screen inventory and lock video + display bundles.
Run a 2-cell experiment (cross-screen vs. single-screen) in matched regions.
Integrate retail media and JioStar reporting into one incrementality dashboard.
Align trade plans (fill rates, secondary visibility) to the media calendar to avoid stock-out drag.

One-Slide Summary (for leadership)

Impact: +5.7% avg uplift (peaks: +8.4% at ₹10 cr+, +7.2% with video+display).
Winner Mix: Cross-screen > single screen; video+display > video-only.
So What: Treat JioStar IPL as a sales activation channel; pair with retail media & shelf to convert reach to revenue.
Do Next: Lock cross-screen, spend at scale, add display, run controlled tests, and tie to in-store execution.

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Rohil

With GST-related disruption fading and volumes rebounding, FMCG, the country’s biggest advertiser, is set to re-accelerate spends in FY26, but with a different mix.

Three signals:

Demand is normalising: Companies have refilled channels after the GST rejig, with trade and e-commerce stabilising, setting up a sales upswing in H2 FY26.
Budgets are loosening: After 2025’s pullback (TV ad volumes fell as FMCG tightened), marketers are preparing double-digit spend increases into late FY26 as inflation eases and pricing resets.
Where the money goes: Expect more digital/retail media and commerce-linked video, not just GRP chases, brands want incremental, attributable reach as rural demand firms and value growth returns.

Net: FY26 AdEx should skew volume-led and ROI-obsessed, bigger activation on marketplaces/quick-commerce, sharper audience buys in digital video, and calibrated TV bursts around launches and festivals, rather than blanket massing.

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Rohil

India has entered high-level talks in Washington on securing critical-mineral supply chains, joining a US-hosted meeting alongside G7 finance ministers and invitees like Australia. IT & Electronics Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw is attending as the US rallies partners to reduce reliance on China, which dominates refining of lithium, cobalt and rare earths.

The agenda includes new partnerships, financing and potential market measures to build non-China capacity, part of a broader US strategy that has recently pulled more countries into minerals coordination.

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Rohil

The US will extend a formal invite to India next month to join Pax Silica, its coalition to de-risk the rare-earths→semiconductor→AI supply chain. New US envoy Sergio Gor flagged the move in New Delhi, positioning India’s entry alongside talks on critical minerals and tech cooperation. Pax Silica already includes allies like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the UK, Israel, UAE and Australia, and is adding West Asian partners; India’s inclusion would align with its magnet/semiconductor push and efforts to diversify away from China-centric inputs.

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Rohil

When ocean routes wobbled (Red Sea diversions, tariff noise), Indian shippers shifted critical loads, pharma, electronics, engineering goods, perishables, express, to the skies. Air freight went from emergency fallback to strategic backbone, helping exporters protect timelines and keep plants running. Integrators like FedEx/DHL and forwarders such as Jeena & Co. all report air was the best-performing mode of the year as customers paid for speed and certainty.

Two enablers stood out. First, infrastructure: years of planning under PM GatiShakti started to show up in smoother multimodal handoffs, fewer bottlenecks, and more predictable flows. FedEx’s leadership called out this structural shift as key to resilience. Second, data and automation: networks leaned on AI-led planning, routing, automated handling, and real-time visibility so shippers could anticipate snags instead of just reacting.

Sustainability moved from slideware to ops. DHL pushed a 2030 roadmap that treats green logistics as a bottom line, investing in cleaner facilities and programs like GoGreen Plus, while forwarders improved emissions tracking alongside reliability.

On the home front, e-commerce and quick commerce stress-tested speed daily. Zepto’s IPO signal and year-end delivery records (Blinkit/Zomato posting all-time peaks on Dec 31) showed last-mile capacity holding under demand spikes, evidence that India’s air-to-ground chain has matured from scale to precision execution.

Bottom line: 2025 proved agility is the new advantage. With air cargo capacity, integrated infrastructure, and digital control towers, India kept cargo moving through global turbulence, and enters 2026 more confident, more connected, and more indispensable to trade.

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Rohil

The Centre approved 22 component-making projects worth ₹41,863 cr ($4.64 bn) under its electronics components scheme, backing parts like camera modules, display assemblies and enclosures from players including Samsung, Tata Electronics and Foxconn. The bets are spread across 8 states, expected to generate ₹2.58 lakh cr in output and ~34,000 jobs, and are aimed at cutting import dependence as India pushes electronics production from $125 bn (FY25) toward $500 bn by FY31.

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Rohil

AVG Logistics has created a dedicated CNG-powered corridor for Nestlé India, deploying 50 Ashok Leyland CNG trucks that will collectively run about 2.75 lakh km each month. The company says this shift should cut ~1.1 lakh kg of CO₂ a year, while tightening schedules and fuel costs on Nestlé’s lanes. Announced via a Jan 3 exchange filing, the partnership is framed as both a sustainability move and an ops upgrade, with AVG noting it will keep expanding tech-led, low-emission models across the network.

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Rohil

India’s pre-Budget playbook targets the China gap with a two-track push, calibrated duty hikes + targeted incentives, on a ~100-item list (engineering goods, machinery, steel, even suitcases/flooring) to curb dependence and rebuild local value chains. The urgency is visible in the numbers: Apr–Nov FY26 exports $292 bn vs imports $515.2 bn; China imports $84.2 bn vs exports $12.2 bn to China (deficit ~$72 bn).

The plan pairs trade steps with MSME shock-absorbers (easier, cheaper credit; export-risk buffers; digital compliance; ZED/LEAN uptake) so small suppliers don’t get crushed by tariff whiplash. On inputs, Delhi is leaning into critical minerals, notably a ₹7,280-cr NdFeB magnet scheme (6,000 MTPA, 7 years) and a broader strategy for lithium/cobalt/rare-earths via overseas tie-ups and a proposed fund.

Logistics is the silent tax the Budget wants to cut: in-country movement costs ~14–16% of GDP vs China’s ~8%; the target is single-digit by end-2026 with ongoing expressway/connector upgrades. Electronics shows the template, mobile output rose from ₹2.2 lakh cr (FY21) → ₹5.45 lakh cr (FY25); exports >₹2 lakh cr; ~1.33 mn jobs (70% women), and the next link is semiconductors: ~₹1.6 lakh cr in approved projects (Tata, Micron, Foxconn, HCL) to localise fab/packaging/compound semis.

Net: the Budget is framed as a coherent supply-chain strategy, tariffs where needed, incentives where effective, and fixes in quality, scale, finance, minerals, and logistics, to narrow, not just manage, the China gap.

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Rohil

India Today’s analysis says the Sep 22 GST rate cuts actually caused a September dip in FMCG volumes (-3.7% MoM) because shoppers and retailers held purchases waiting for new MRPs, while many manufacturers paused dispatches to reprint packs and reset systems. October saw a catch-up, but the lift was gradual, not explosive.

Two structural frictions kept it muted:
(1) India’s mass FMCG runs on ₹5/₹10/₹20 “magic price points”—you can’t cut to ₹4.70 at a cash-led kirana, so companies tend to add grammage later rather than slash sticker prices overnight;

(2) the GST transition created temporary destocking/re-stocking across channels. Bigger picture, NielsenIQ’s Q3 read shows 5.4% volume growth (value +12.9%) with rural still outpacing urban, evidence that the tax cut’s benefit is seeping in, just with a lag and category-by-category.

Net: expect a stair-step recovery as pack sizes/price points are retooled and inventories normalise, rather than a one-week surge.

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