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India Today’s analysis says the Sep 22 GST rate cuts actually caused a September dip in FMCG volumes (-3.7% MoM) because shoppers and retailers held purchases waiting for new MRPs, while many manufacturers paused dispatches to reprint packs and reset systems. October saw a catch-up, but the lift was gradual, not explosive.
Two structural frictions kept it muted:
(1) India’s mass FMCG runs on ₹5/₹10/₹20 “magic price points”—you can’t cut to ₹4.70 at a cash-led kirana, so companies tend to add grammage later rather than slash sticker prices overnight;(2) the GST transition created temporary destocking/re-stocking across channels. Bigger picture, NielsenIQ’s Q3 read shows 5.4% volume growth (value +12.9%) with rural still outpacing urban, evidence that the tax cut’s benefit is seeping in, just with a lag and category-by-category.
Net: expect a stair-step recovery as pack sizes/price points are retooled and inventories normalise, rather than a one-week surge.
